Australian Geothermal Energy Association Inc
News Article
Report to Australian Geothermal Energy Assoc. by McLennan Magasanik Assoc. P/L
Monday, August 18, 2008
AGEA recently commissioned energy specialist modelling firm McLennan Magasanik Associates Pty Ltd (MMA) to produce a report estimating the future electricity generation capacity of geothermal energy in 2020 and the price.
The key findings of the report include:
Monday, August 18, 2008
AGEA recently commissioned energy specialist modelling firm McLennan Magasanik Associates Pty Ltd (MMA) to produce a report estimating the future electricity generation capacity of geothermal energy in 2020 and the price.
The key findings of the report include:
- The Australian Geothermal Energy Industry can be expected to provide up to 2200 MW of base-load capacity by 2020 into the National Electricity Market based on current government policy settings;
- That capacity potentially represents up to 40% of the Federal Government’s 2020 Renewable Energy Target (RET) of 45,000 GWHs - the equivalent of the output of around 6000 MW of wind farms;
- An estimated $12b would be invested to develop 2,200 MW of installed capacity;
- The cost of generating electricity from geothermal resources is expected to move rapidly down the cost curve through though the pilot, demonstration and commercialisation stages to reach economies of scale by 2020 at the following costs:
- From $90 to $135 per MWh from small scale demonstration plants (10 MW to 50 MW)
- From around $80/MWh to $120MWh for large scale plants by 2020;
- The upper cost boundary will decline over time because the level of uncertainty is expected to narrow as the industry grows.
- This cost is expected to be lowest cost of any form of renewable or low emissions energy; and
- Most of the capacity is expected to come from developments in SA with other states increasing their contribution toward the end of the 2020 period.